عوامل کاهش تمایل به ازدواج و فرزندآوری در جوانان از دیدگاه صاحب‌نظران در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری
محورهای موضوعی : آسیب‌های اجتماعی مرتبط با همسرگزینی، تغییر الگوهای ازدواج، طلاق و ناپایداری خانواده
مهرداد حاجی حسنی
1
,
منیژه کاوه
2
,
ناهید بنده خدا
3
1 - دانشیار گروه مشاوره و روان‌شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه مشاوره و روان‌شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران
3 - کارشناسی ارشد مشاوره خانواده، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران
کلید واژه: ازدواج, فرزندآوری, روش دلفی, روندهای باروری و چهارمحال و بختیاری.,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر کاهش تمایل به ازدواج و فرزندآوری در میان جوانان استان چهارمحال و بختیاری است؛ مسئله‌ای که در سال‌های اخیر به یکی از نگرانی‌های مهم اجتماعی و جمعیتی کشور تبدیل شده است. این مطالعه با رویکرد کیفی و به‌کارگیری روش دلفی انجام شد. در این فرایند، ده نفر از خبرگان حوزه‌های مرتبط در سه مرحله متوالی شرکت کردند تا از طریق هم‌اندیشی و تبادل نظر، به اجماع نظری درباره عوامل مؤثر دست یابند. یافته‌ها نشان داد که مشکلات اقتصادی، گسترش سبک زندگی غربی، کاهش باورهای دینی، نبود فرصت‌های شغلی مناسب و رشد شهرنشینی از مهم‌ترین دلایل کاهش رغبت به ازدواج در میان جوانان است. همچنین افزایش گرایش زنان به تحصیلات عالی و استقلال اقتصادی، چالش‌های خانوادگی و نگرانی والدین درباره آینده شغلی فرزندان نیز از عوامل بازدارنده فرزندآوری شناخته شد. مجموعه این عوامل، بازتابی از تعامل پیچیده متغیرهای اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی در شکل‌گیری الگوهای نوین ازدواج و باروری در جامعه امروز ایران است. نتایج این مطالعه بر لزوم طراحی مداخلات هدفمند در حوزه‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی، تقویت حمایت‌های خانواده‌محور و احیای ارزش‌های فرهنگیِ مشوق ازدواج زودهنگام و فرزندآوری تأکید دارد. پیشنهاد می‌شود سیاست‌گذاران با تمرکز بر ایجاد اشتغال پایدار و حمایت مالی از زوج‌های جوان، روند کنونی را اصلاح کنند.
Factors Reducing the Tendency toward Marriage and Childbearing among Youth: Perspectives of Experts in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province
Mehrdad Hajihasani*
Manijheh Kaveh**
Nahid Bandehkhoda***
This study aimed to identify the factors contributing to the declining tendency toward marriage and childbearing among youth in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, a pressing social and demographic concern in Iran in recent years. Employing a qualitative approach and the Delphi method, the study involved ten experts from relevant fields who participated in three consecutive rounds to achieve a theoretical consensus on influential factors through deliberation. Data was analyzed using measures of central tendency and dispersion, including mean and standard deviation. The findings revealed that economic challenges, the influence of Western lifestyles, declining religious beliefs, lack of suitable employment opportunities, and urbanization were the primary reasons for reduced interest in marriage among youth. Additionally, women’s increasing pursuit of higher education and economic independence, family-related challenges, and parental concerns about their children’s future employment were identified as significant barriers to childbearing. These factors collectively reflect the complex interplay of economic, social, and cultural variables shaping modern marriage and fertility patterns in Iranian society. The study underscores the need for targeted interventions in economic and social domains, strengthening family-oriented support, and revitalizing cultural values that promote early marriage and childbearing. It is recommended that policymakers prioritize creating sustainable employment opportunities and providing financial support to young couples to address these trends.
Keywords: Marriage, Childbearing, Delphi Method, Fertility Trends, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari.
Introduction
Marriage and childbearing, as foundational social institutions, play a critical role in family cohesion, individual psychological and social well-being, and generational continuity. However, recent decades have witnessed shifts in marriage patterns globally, characterized by declining marriage rates, rising age at marriage, and increasing prevalence of singlehood or cohabitation, with significant implications for family and societal stability. In Iran, particularly among youth, delayed marriage and reluctance to marry have emerged as major social and cultural concerns. Examining barriers to marriage is essential for developing supportive policies and intervention programs.
Numerous studies have identified economic obstacles, employment challenges, changing values, fear of commitment, concerns about divorce, and family difficulties as key reasons for reduced tendencies toward marriage and childbearing (Amato, 2000; Cherlin, 2004). Additionally, cultural transformations and growing individualism have diminished the perception of marriage as a social necessity, rendering it a personal and conditional decision (Lesthaeghe & Van de Kaa, 1986). In Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, with its unique cultural and economic context, these barriers are expected to be multifaceted. Despite the issue’s significance, prior research, particularly comprehensive qualitative studies, is limited, with most studies relying on survey methods or focusing on specific barriers. This study employs a qualitative approach and the Delphi method to identify and prioritize factors deterring marriage and childbearing from the perspectives of experts in family studies, psychology, counseling, sociology, and related fields.
Methodology
This study utilized a qualitative approach with the Delphi method, a validated technique for gathering and analyzing expert opinions on topics lacking prior scientific consensus. The research population comprised experts in marriage and family issues in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, with a sample of ten experts selected based on Delphi guidelines recommending 5–20 participants.
Data collection was structured in three sequential rounds to gather expert opinions and achieve consensus. In the first round, in-depth individual interviews were conducted to clarify the research problem, identify diverse perspectives, and document relevant variables. In the second round, a comprehensive questionnaire, developed from interview findings and existing literature, was used to assess the importance, relevance, and clarity of each variable, achieving moderate consensus requiring further refinement. In the third round, a revised questionnaire and follow-up discussions resolved discrepancies, yielding a strong consensus and final variable set. Data from the first round were analyzed using content analysis, while the second and third rounds employed quantitative analysis with mean and standard deviation. Kendall’s V coefficient was used to measure the level of consensus.
Findings
In the first Delphi round, experts identified twelve factors affecting marriage and childbearing, which were consolidated into seven key factors: economic problems, male unemployment, women’s pursuit of higher education, declining religious beliefs among youth, family factors (e.g., parental divorce, marital conflicts), inclination toward Western lifestyles, and women’s increasing economic power. Economic, social, and cultural factors were found to have the greatest impact, while distrust of the opposite sex and fear of infidelity were less significant.
In the second round, experts evaluated factor impacts using a Likert-scale questionnaire. For marriage, male unemployment, women’s pursuit of higher education, economic difficulties, declining religious beliefs, and family factors were the most significant barriers, while fear of infidelity and distrust had minimal impact. For childbearing, declining religious beliefs, economic problems, and concerns about children’s future employment were prominent, while access to contraception, lack of psychological maturity, and marital conflicts had lesser effects. Kendall’s V coefficient indicated moderate consensus.
In the third round, refined through revisions and discussions, the primary factors reducing marriage included economic problems, male unemployment, family factors, declining religious beliefs, women’s employment, and their increasing economic power, with urbanization and Western lifestyles also significant. For childbearing, urbanization, women’s employment, and concerns about children’s future employment were most influential, followed by unemployment, economic difficulties, and declining religious beliefs. The combination of economic, family, socio-cultural, and shifting gender roles had the greatest impact, with expert consensus reaching its peak.
Discussion and Conclusion
The final Delphi round revealed strong expert consensus on the critical role of economic factors and employment in reducing youth marriage and childbearing. For marriage, economic problems and male unemployment were the primary barriers, followed by family factors, declining religious beliefs, changing women’s roles, and socio-cultural shifts like urbanization and Western lifestyles. For childbearing, urbanization and women’s employment were the leading deterrents, followed by concerns about children’s future employment, male unemployment, and economic problems, with declining religious beliefs, women’s education, and Western lifestyles having a lesser impact.
Literature analysis confirms that economic factors directly influence marriage and childbearing decisions, as individuals prioritize financial stability before long-term commitments (Oppenheimer, 1988). Adverse economic conditions increase stress and uncertainty, delaying these decisions (Ogawa, 2003). Women’s employment and pursuit of higher education also shift marriage and fertility patterns, with career-oriented women preferring later marriages with partners of similar status (Schwartz & Han, 2014). Cultural and religious shifts, including Western lifestyles and individualistic values, further reduce marriage and fertility rates by redefining family roles (Torabi & Farash Khiyalu, 2020; Gupta, 2023). Parental conflict and divorce also foster hesitancy toward marriage among youth (D’Onofrio et al., 2007). Urbanization and concerns about children’s future employment exacerbate these trends, with urban lifestyles and access to contraception promoting smaller families and delayed childbearing (Kaveh & Hajihasani, 2024). Recommended strategies include economic and employment support policies, educational and counseling programs, and cultural interventions to encourage marriage and childbearing.
References
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* Corresponding Author: Associate Professor, Department of Counseling and Psychology, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahrekord University, Iran.
Dr_hajihasani@sku.ac.ir
** Assistant Professor, Department of Counseling and Psychology, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahrekord University, Iran.
manizhehkaveh@gmail.com
*** M.A in Family Counseling, University of Isfahan, Iran.
moshaver123456@gmail.com